Mike Huckabee is Out

Another one pulls up before the race even starts. Mike Huckabee joins Haley Barbour as two big Republican heavyweights who have decided not to run for the GOP nomination. Huckabee's decision is particularly surprising considering he has positioned himself well throughout the campaign so far.

There were rumours a couple of weeks ago that Huckabee might not be running and he had taken his foot of the gas somewhat as it was clear his campaign was at a much lower tempo than his rivals when. He had lost out on some key hires for his Iowa campaign team.

“All the factors say go,” Huckabee said in his Fox News Channel show. “But my heart says no.” Huckabee's withdrawal flings the campaign further open amongst grassroots conservatives as this was certainly the group from which he drew most support. Undoubtedly, he now makes a strong choice for running mate when the time comes.

One also has to question if the window is now closing for Huckabee. Should he run in four years time he would likely encounter one Sarah Palin, who seems unlikely to run this year, and this would result in a serious tussle for the votes of the socially conservative base. It really seems now rather than later is Huckabee's best opportunity to challenge for the highest office in the land.

Donald Trump is Out

With all his talk of exposing Obama as a foreigner and being a 'really bad student' at Harvard - because lots of bad students become the first Afro-American editor of the Harvard Law Review - the Donald now scuttles away back to the safety of the private sector after balking, not for the first time, at the opportunity to run for President. A Ross Perrot-esque candidacy isn't going to happen any more which is sad for many, like myself, who would delight in writing about something that would definitely spice up standard procedure.

However in his statement he maintained: " the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and ultimately, the general election." So why not run? "Ultimately, however, business is my greatest passion and I am not ready to leave the private sector."

He went on to say: "This decision does not come easily or without regret; especially when my potential candidacy continues to be validated by ranking at the top of the Republican contenders in polls across the country. I have spent the past several months unofficially campaigning and recognize that running for public office cannot be done half heartedly."

As part of his continuing work in the private sector he is obliged to fulfil his lucrative contract to NBC with another series of his multi-million making TV show The Apprentice.  

Profile: Ron Paul

The evergreen and libertarian leaning Ron Paul has officially announced his candidacy to be the Republican nominee for President. The 75 years young Republican Congressman for the 14th congressional district in Texas is making his 3rd run at the Presidency after first running in 1988 as a Libertarian.

He is now somewhat of a cult hero amongst in American politics after running a uniquely swashbuckling campaign in 2008 for the Republican nomination. Clearly he's looking to build on that success saying in his announcement on Friday: "The time has come around to the point where the people are agreeing with much of what I've been saying for 30 years." Adding: "So I think the time is right."

Speaking of his aspirations for 2012 he said: "I'd be fine by doing very well. I believe right now, we're coming in number one and the Republican primary is an absolute possibility." He went on to say that this time around his prospects were, "many, many times better than it was four years ago. Our troops, our supporters - the grassroots - are enthusiastic, more so than ever."

Ron Ernest Paul M.D. is also a very experienced obstetrician having delivered over 4000 babies and is naturally opposed to abortion but, in keeping with his libertarian beliefs, he is opposed to the government intervening on the issue. With abortion being one of the third rail issues of American politics such a perspective is going to be unpopular with the socially conservative grassroots of the Republican party which is undoubtedly the faction of the GOP he appeals to least. In the event he does become the nominee his appeal will be strongest amongst the socially moderate in both parties, fiscal conservatives including Blue Dog Democrats, libertarians and independents. Whilst his appeal is certainly broad his biggest struggle will be with the first hurdle.

Photo by Gage Skidmore.

The nature of the primary process ensures that nominees must first impress the party grassroots before they earn the opportunity to broadcast their message on a national stage. His relatively moderate stance on social issues such as abortion, drugs, faith in schools and other topics falling in the realm of 'American values.' In the past we have seen relative GOP moderates, such as John McCain in the 2008 election, move to the right on these issues in order to secure the party nomination.

It would be unlikely for Paul to bend his beliefs and pander to the grassroots of the party so late in his political career. Currently he serves of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Joint Economic Committee and Committee on Financial Services. He is also chair of the near 20 strong Republican Liberty Caucus which seeks to promote the ideals of individual liberty, limited government and free market economics within the GOP. According to the American Journal of Political Science the Pennsylvania-born Congressman possesses the most conservative voting record in Congress since 1937 although undoubtedly this is as a result of his views on fiscal responsibility than his social views.

He also happens to be the father of junior Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and also seen as a founding influence of the now ultra-conservative Tea Party movement. Initially the movement was set up to protest against the first two budgets of the Obama administration consisting of 3 and 3.8 trillion dollars. They preached for fiscal restraint which is something at the core of Paul's libertarian values however as the movement increasingly became a threat to the mainstream party it became increasingly co-opted. As a result the movement has departed from its unfiltered message of fiscal responsibility and morphed into a group that became the stomping ground for more socially conservative politicians such as Sarah Palin, the infamous Christine O'Donnell and the then unknown Marco Rubio who beat out party big wig Charlie Crist for the Senate.

Based on Paul's 2008 run we can come to expect a strongly committed grassroots base with even more than the 500 'Students for Ron Paul' groups organised in the last election. With the strong youth vote he draws he is expected to continue his strong online presence which earned him the highest rate of contributions from individuals and military personnel amongst Republicans. Whilst it is fair to say Congress' 'Dr. No' is a long shot to be nominee he will certainly have the national spotlight shone on him given his pedigree and undoubtedly will ruffle a few feathers in the candidate debates like he did with Mitt Romney in 2008.


Article first published as Profile: Ron Paul on Blogcritics. Also as The importance of being (Ron) Ernest (Paul) on The Commentator.

Ron Paul Declares

Ron Paul announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination to be President of the United States of America on ABC's Good Morning America. "The time has come around to the point where the people are agreeing with much of what I've been saying for 30 years," he said. "So I think the time is right."

The evergreen libertarian leaning Republican is somewhat of a cult hero amongst libertarians and fiscal conservatives and will undoubtedly be popular amongst independents, more moderate Democrats including the fiscally conservative Blue Dogs. This is Paul's 3rd run at the nomination with his first in 1988 when he ran as a 3rd party Libertarian. The man known as 'Dr. No' earned acclaim for his unique swashbuckling style in his ultimately doomed but rather popular bid for the Republican nomination in 2008.

Newt Gingrich Declares

Newt Gingrich announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination to be President of the United States of America in a 2 minute YouTube video. Looking straight at the camera and backed by some rather questionable  music he said: "I'm Newt Gingrich, and I'm announcing my candidacy for President of the United States because I believe we can return America to hope and opportunity, to full employment, to real security, to an American energy program, to a balanced budget."

The former Speaker of the House from Georgia joins Gary Johnson, Fred Karger and most recently Ron Paul as the main runners for the GOP nomination who have officially declared their nomination. Whilst undoubtedly he was a big name in the party just over a decade ago, famed for locking horns with President Bill Clinton, his star somewhat waned as he later resigned after a disastrous performance in the 1998 mid-term elections. He's now 67 years old and it is probable his longevity will be brought into question but side-lining him as being too old would be a mistake. He's popular amongst both social and, to a lesser extent, fiscal conservatives and was once the darling of the party even rivalling a President in popularity with the American people.

The Prospective GOP Field

Whilst Gary Johnson and Fred Karger remain the only 2 legitimate politicians to declare their candidacy for the Republican nomination the following are prospective nominees that we can expect decisions from in the coming weeks:

• Michele Bachmann - Minnesota Representative, prominent Tea Party member
• John Bolton - former UN aambassador, considered a neo-conservative
• Mitch Daniels - Governor of Indiana, more of a fiscal conservative
• Newt Gingrich - former Speaker, orchestrated 1994 Contract with America 
• Rudy Giuliani - Mayor of New York during 9/11, failed 2008 candidate
• Mike Huckabee - former Governor of Arkansas, social conservative
• Jon Huntsman, Jr. - former Governor of Utah. former ambassador to China
• Sarah Palin - running mate in 2008, social conservative, grassroots darling
• Ron Paul - iconic libertarian Republican, fiscal conservative, evergreen 
• Tim Pawlenty - former 1-term Governor of Minnesota, social conservative
• Buddy Roemer - former Governor of Louisiana, was a Democrat
• Mitt Romney - former Governor of Massachusetts, health-care reformer
• Rick Santorum - former Pennsylvania Senator, social conservative
• Donald Trump, Sr. - multi-millionaire businessman, quasi-celebrity, PR stunt?

This is not a comprehensive list of all the possible nominees but it is a list of all those who have any kind of legitimate shot at the nomination that have either expressed intention to run or are widely speculated to do so. (Bold type constitutes the widely regarded heavyweights within the party.) Santorum could be added to this list because much of his career has been prolific except for the fact that he suffered a humiliating and colossal defeat in his 2006 Senate campaign. Since then his career has somewhat stalled whilst Gingrich was one of the most high profile Speakers in American history because of his famous bust-ups with Bill Clinton but since his resignation in 1999 he has yet to recapture those previous heights.

Gingrich is expected to announce as early as the start of next week whilst Bachmann and Trump have said they will make their minds up by June. However, it is Mike Huckabee whose nomination will be followed most closely as he is no doubt a heavy-weight contender that has done everything expected of a nominee except promptly declare. Pawlenty and Romney are heavyweights that are certain to run whilst the smart money would be on Palin not to and wait 4 years.

The Republican field is slowly taking shape but at the moment what we are seeing is a really big game of chicken. Once a heavyweight candidate declares the rest will promptly follow suit but until then the prospective candidates jostle for pole position. Think of it in terms of the start of the Grand National at Aintree, although only the first 30 seconds of the video are relevant, it was a good race anyway. 

Obama's Comic Relief

The annual White House correspondents' dinner provides a welcome opportunity for the President to indulge in some light hearted banter and general mickey-taking at the expense of nearly anybody within the political realm.

There is usually a comedian of sorts who has free reign to dole out all manner of abuse with some making more use of the opportunity than others. Recent dinners have seen Stephen Colbert's attempt verging on downright abuse, loyal to the style of his TV alter-ego, whilst it is fair to say Jay Leno did not live up to his billing.

Below is Obama's attempt from this year where Donald Trump was seemingly target number 1 due to the infamous 'birther' issue. In all honesty, with that dyed hair and fake tan he is a bit of an easy target.