Profile: Rick Perry

James Richard Perry is the 47th Gov. of the Lone Star state and assumed the role in December 2000 after fellow Texan G.W. Bush resigned to become President of the USA. At present he is the longest continuously serving Governor in the country and the longest serving in Texas history after winning three elections.

Profile: Jon Huntsman, Jr.

The former Governor of Utah entered the race to be the GOP nominee with relatively low name recognition but before his declaration, with the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop, he had spent weeks crisscrossing the nation in a ‘get to know me’ campaign.

Photo by Clint Dunaway via Picasa

Profile: Michele Bachmann

The Congressional Representative for Minnesota’s 6^th District announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination during the second GOP debate on June 13^th. A founder of the House Tea Party Caucus she has drawn some comparisons to another Tea Party favourite and possible competitor, former Alaskan Governor, Sarah Palin.    

Photo by theqspeaks via Flickr.

Profile: Mitt Romney

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney ran for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008 after sinking $35 million of his own money into the campaign. At the time he was a candidate with low name recognition and surrounded by a fog of uncomfortable doubt due to his Mormon faith. This time around he was the first to declare he was creating a presidential exploratory committee and had early visibility but peculiarly not one of the first to declare his candidacy formally.

In many ways his campaign after 2008 never stopped as he maintained much of his political staff in order to continue building their political infrastructure on the ground. You could almost say his invisible primary season started the day after Obama was inaugurated. His activities have included releasing a New York Times best selling book entitled No Apology: The Case for American Greatness as well as campaigning and fund raising at the local grassroots level for many Republican candidates; particularly during the 2010 midterms. He did a lot for Scott Brown who became junior Senator in Romney’s home state of Massachusetts after the death of Ted Kennedy. No doubt this work has won him political favour within the party and its leadership as well as making him more of a known and comfortable quantity with the Republican base who, in 2008, knew relatively little about the Mormon former Governor of a northern liberal state. 

Cartoon by DonkeyHotey

Unlike the other big GOP names in 2008, Huckabee and Palin, Romney has not been so visible on a national level. Palin has so far denied that she is formally running in 2012 despite her book Going Rogue and many public appearances including her current "One Nation" bus tour. She is yet to cite a reason that adequately satisfies the mainstream media but the truth may be that, unlike Romney, she has time on her side. She could well use the next four years to fine tune her political skills and raise even more money so she can lock down the Presidency when she, if ever, runs for it. The GOP has a tendency to nominate the guy who is 'next-in-line' as seen with the likes of John McCain and Bob Dole and in four years Palin is more likely to be that person than she is now.

The signature achievement of Romney’s political career thus far are the Massachusetts health care reforms he led and oversaw whilst he was Governor between 2003 and 2007. This is largely seen as a resounding success but could also prove to be his Achilles heel as ‘ObamaCare’ operates on a similar, but not exact, model. Obama’s health care legislation is somewhat controversial to say the very least and it is vehemently opposed by fiscal conservatives and the conservative base as a whole. The problem for Romney is that he must find a way to distance himself from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act if he is to shore up mainstream Republican support; which is comparatively weaker than the support he receives from the moderate end of the party.

Romney is not the darling of the conservative base like Palin so if he does not manage to disassociate himself from ‘ObamaCare’ during the invisible primary and spends the rest of primary season trying to do so then he won’t be anywhere close to being the Republican nominee for President. A lot of that may be out of his hands and may depend on how much his opponents try to tarnish him with the ‘ObamaCare’ brush as well as to what extent commentators decide play up the association.

So far, Romney has come top, or near the top of various polls in the last year or so including the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll, Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll and most recently the New Hampshire Straw Poll. The National Journal released a poll of political insiders in April that found the majority of Republicans thought Romney would be the nominee and a plurality of Democrats thought he would be too. 

Of course it is still early days in the build up to primary season but what you are seeing now is prospective nominees jockeying for position so they can get the best start possible once the full glare of the American media is upon them and the race starts proper. In the case of Romney he knows that 2012 is his window of opportunity because he, like every other Republican politician the wrong side of 50, knows that Palin will attempt to run one day in the future and nobody commands the adulation of the grassroots conservative quite like The Barracuda at the moment. Although she herself may struggle to maintain her limelight as the stars of state Governors Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley rise.

Whilst Romney would seemingly be one of the established candidates and the ‘next in line’ the primary season has in the past derailed the surest of campaigns and brought people out of obscurity to national prominence. Whether it be a former beauty pageant participant Governor of a politically lightweight state or a basketball mad first-term junior Senator who alludes to rap music in his speeches. We can only hope that 2012 will prove to be as exciting.


Article first published as Mitt Romney: The Republicans' safest bet? on The Commentator. 

Profile: Newt Gingrich

With an announcement on Twitter and a video on YouTube the former Speaker of the House and Congressman from Georgia, Newt Gingrich, has declared his candidacy to be the Republican nominee for President in 2012. In the video he told viewers: "There's a much better American future ahead with more jobs, more prosperity, a better health system, longer lives, greater independent living and a country that is decentralized under the 10th Amendment with power once again back with the American people and away from the Washington bureaucracy."

In a not-so-veiled shot at the Obama administration and the Democratic Party he said: "there are some people who don't mind if America becomes a wreck as long as they dominate the wreckage." The author and historian, 67, is most famed for regularly locking horns with then President Bill Clinton and engineering the 1994 Contract with America which gave the Republican party control of the House for the first time in 40 years. However, just 4 years later after a disastrous performance by the GOP in the mid-term elections Gingrich resigned and has been working as a campaigner, as well as author, ever since. With his long career in Washington politics he has developed strong ties with several big GOP donors and party operatives; so a strong well-structured and well-funded campaign is expected.

Gingrich does however face questions about his family values and fidelity as he is already onto his third wife, Callista, who was a Congressional aide that he had an affair with whilst still married to his second wife. He blamed his aberration on his love of country and the stresses of congress. He has also recently converted to Catholicism and now has to work hard to win the religious, and protestant, socially conservative base. To do so he has associated himself with a rather controversial pastor the rather evangelical John Hagee who said on radio in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina that New Orleans suffered the "judgement of God" due to its "level of sin." (No doubt a dig at the perceived culture around Bourbon Street in New Orleans although Hagee later retracted his words.)

Gingrich's campaign has however got off to a bit of a rocky start with the right of the party with his approach to the possible reformation of Medicare. In an interview on NBC's 'Meet the Press' he labelled a GOP plan to overhaul the long-standing legislation as "right-wing extremism." The comments were seen as a rebuke to the orchestrator of the plan, the party's conservative rising star, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. A lot of the criticism levelled at Gingrich has come from the socially conservative and Tea Party embraced members of the GOP. South Carolina Republican Governor Nikki Haley commented: "Here you’ve got Representative Ryan trying to bring common sense to this world of insanity, and Newt absolutely cut him off at the knees." Haley's endorsement is very much sought after as she governs the state that holds the primary season's third contest.

Later, Gingrich mentioned that he felt somewhat blind-sided by 'Meet the Press' presenter David Gregory's line of questioning despite appearing on the show 35 times. He has also drawn fire for his position on Obama's healthcare legislation as he didn't completely denounce it, initially, which is something widely expected of GOP members as not a single Republican in either House or Senate voted in favour of the bill. Regarding the individual mandate to take out health insurance, whether government or private, a key tenant of 'Obamacare' and opposed by Republicans he said: "I agree that all of us have a responsibility to pay — help pay for health care." He later tried back-tracking on this by stating that he flatly opposed the law and backed it up signing a pledge to repeal it.

Photo by ajagendorf25 via Wikimedia Commons.

On top of this, Gin­grich then encountered the latest hiccup regarding his personal life. A report by Politico stated that he previosuly owed approximately $500,000 to iconic jewellery store Tiffany and Co. The accounts were apparently filed by his latest wife Callista and when ever pressed for details about them Gingrich has continually declined to comment.

As it stands, Gingrich's support amongst GOP voters has been somewhat weak. In recently published polling; CNN showed only 10% support amongst GOP voters and 5% in a Quinnipiac poll. This once Republican heavyweight may not wield the power he once did just over a decade ago but his access to the party's largest financial backers is unmatched and the envy of his competitors except for maybe Mitt Romney who has of course the many millions in his pockets he could dig into should his fundraising river dry up.

Article first published as Profile: Newt Gingrich on Blogcritics. Also as Who is Newt Gingrich? The man who would be president on The Commentator.

Profile: Ron Paul

The evergreen and libertarian leaning Ron Paul has officially announced his candidacy to be the Republican nominee for President. The 75 years young Republican Congressman for the 14th congressional district in Texas is making his 3rd run at the Presidency after first running in 1988 as a Libertarian.

He is now somewhat of a cult hero amongst in American politics after running a uniquely swashbuckling campaign in 2008 for the Republican nomination. Clearly he's looking to build on that success saying in his announcement on Friday: "The time has come around to the point where the people are agreeing with much of what I've been saying for 30 years." Adding: "So I think the time is right."

Speaking of his aspirations for 2012 he said: "I'd be fine by doing very well. I believe right now, we're coming in number one and the Republican primary is an absolute possibility." He went on to say that this time around his prospects were, "many, many times better than it was four years ago. Our troops, our supporters - the grassroots - are enthusiastic, more so than ever."

Ron Ernest Paul M.D. is also a very experienced obstetrician having delivered over 4000 babies and is naturally opposed to abortion but, in keeping with his libertarian beliefs, he is opposed to the government intervening on the issue. With abortion being one of the third rail issues of American politics such a perspective is going to be unpopular with the socially conservative grassroots of the Republican party which is undoubtedly the faction of the GOP he appeals to least. In the event he does become the nominee his appeal will be strongest amongst the socially moderate in both parties, fiscal conservatives including Blue Dog Democrats, libertarians and independents. Whilst his appeal is certainly broad his biggest struggle will be with the first hurdle.

Photo by Gage Skidmore.

The nature of the primary process ensures that nominees must first impress the party grassroots before they earn the opportunity to broadcast their message on a national stage. His relatively moderate stance on social issues such as abortion, drugs, faith in schools and other topics falling in the realm of 'American values.' In the past we have seen relative GOP moderates, such as John McCain in the 2008 election, move to the right on these issues in order to secure the party nomination.

It would be unlikely for Paul to bend his beliefs and pander to the grassroots of the party so late in his political career. Currently he serves of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Joint Economic Committee and Committee on Financial Services. He is also chair of the near 20 strong Republican Liberty Caucus which seeks to promote the ideals of individual liberty, limited government and free market economics within the GOP. According to the American Journal of Political Science the Pennsylvania-born Congressman possesses the most conservative voting record in Congress since 1937 although undoubtedly this is as a result of his views on fiscal responsibility than his social views.

He also happens to be the father of junior Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and also seen as a founding influence of the now ultra-conservative Tea Party movement. Initially the movement was set up to protest against the first two budgets of the Obama administration consisting of 3 and 3.8 trillion dollars. They preached for fiscal restraint which is something at the core of Paul's libertarian values however as the movement increasingly became a threat to the mainstream party it became increasingly co-opted. As a result the movement has departed from its unfiltered message of fiscal responsibility and morphed into a group that became the stomping ground for more socially conservative politicians such as Sarah Palin, the infamous Christine O'Donnell and the then unknown Marco Rubio who beat out party big wig Charlie Crist for the Senate.

Based on Paul's 2008 run we can come to expect a strongly committed grassroots base with even more than the 500 'Students for Ron Paul' groups organised in the last election. With the strong youth vote he draws he is expected to continue his strong online presence which earned him the highest rate of contributions from individuals and military personnel amongst Republicans. Whilst it is fair to say Congress' 'Dr. No' is a long shot to be nominee he will certainly have the national spotlight shone on him given his pedigree and undoubtedly will ruffle a few feathers in the candidate debates like he did with Mitt Romney in 2008.


Article first published as Profile: Ron Paul on Blogcritics. Also as The importance of being (Ron) Ernest (Paul) on The Commentator.

Profile: Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson is the first Republican politician to formally declare his candidacy for their presidential nomination. He previously served as the Governor of New Mexico between 1995 and 2003 best known for his strong libertarian views and never raising taxes during his tenure.

His financial record as governor is widely seen as impeccable. He left the state with a $1 billion budget surplus after being term-limited and reduced the growth rate of state government by half. He cut taxes 14 times for both home-owners and business ensuring he retired as one of the most popular governors in recent history. 

His libertarian beliefs have similarities to those of the evergreen Ron Paul of Texas, a possible GOP candidate too, and have included social issues as well as financial. Most notably he campaigned for the legalisation of marijuana and called for the drug issue to be dealt with as a health rather than criminal one. He's also a supporter of gay rights and it his his social views that will be his biggest obstacle to overcome in convincing the conservative grass-roots to vote for him. 

Perhaps his signature issue was that of school vouchers which would allow parents to take the funding for their child's state education and use it to help pay for private school fees. His proposal included a school voucher endowment of $3500 per child. This is a divisive topic for Republicans and Democrats nationally and he ran into severe opposition in the New Mexico legislature where it ultimately faltered. 

He also became infamous for his extensive use of the line-item veto which allowed him to eliminate any part of legislation he wanted after it had passed through the state legislature and before he signed it into law. He had used this power over 1000 times when he left office which was more than any governor in the country at the time earning the nicknames 'Governor Veto' and 'Dr. No.'

There is also the possibility that Johnson runs as a candidate for the Libertarian Party should he not be the Republican nominee. Such a possibility is often associated with the aforementioned Ron Paul but Johnson has in the past gone to lengths to distance himself from parts of libertarianism and to re-affirm his Republican loyalty. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in late 2010 he did so on issues to do with civil rights, defence funding and social security. Asked specifically if he would run as a third-party candidate he said, "I'm a Republican and will stay a Republican."

Johnson's background is in small business where he grew a one man company into a multi-million dollar construction firm with over 1000 employees by the time he sold it in 1999. Johnson is also famed for his extensive participation in triathlons and climbing Mount Everest in 2003. 

For Johnson the likelihood of his nomination will depend upon his ability to woo the conservative base. Whilst he will undoubtedly win over fiscal conservatives, as well as those of a socially libertarian inclination, it will be the social conservatives - the party's mainstream - where most courtship needs to be done. His stances on marijuana and gay rights will be unpopular with them and this is before he expresses his views on the 3rd rail issue of abortion; which would likely be pro-choice considering his libertarian values. 

Unfortunately for Johnson he may well be doomed to the fate of his libertarian forefathers, that include Ron Paul, in that he won't be the nominee. Social conservatives currently compose the majority of registered Republican mainstream and grass-roots and with their favoured politicians Huckabee, Gingrich, and possibly Palin, likely to run it would seem unlikely for Johnson to win them over despite his impressive political track record.

Gary Johnson declaring his candidacy today in Concord, New Hampshire. Photo by Jim Cole AP.

Article first published as Profiling Gary Johnson on Blogcritics. Also as 'Libertarian ex-governor is first to announce 2012 challenge to Obama' at The Vibe.